In this latest deep-dive video, we explore the fascinating journey of the Caribbean economies in 2023. It was a year that stands as a significant milestone – marking the first full year post-COVID-19. This period offers us a unique opportunity to evaluate the economic landscape of the Caribbean, untethered from the pandemic’s immediate impacts.
Despite the challenges of inflation, unemployment, and geopolitical strains, 2023 wasn’t all about economic hardships in the Caribbean. Certain nations not only withstood these challenges but also thrived, charting a course of positive economic growth. From the vibrant financial sectors of the Bahamas to the robust trade activities in Guyana, these countries have demonstrated remarkable resilience and optimism for the future.
Today’s video is more than just a rundown of statistics. We delve into the stories behind the numbers, uncovering how these economies managed to succeed amid global economic turbulence. Join us as we highlight The 10 best-performing Caribbean economies of 2023, offering insights into the strategies and factors that contributed to their success.
What is a Good Performing Economy you may ask?
Let’s first start as always by setting up a few parameters on how we are going to assess the region’s economic performance. Economic performance is a multifaceted and intricate measurement that can be analyzed in several ways. Several key indicators include measurements such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment rates, inflation, and trade balances.
However, GDP, in particular, stands as a cornerstone metric, representing the total value of goods and services produced within a country’s borders. This comprehensive measure provides insight into the overall size and growth trajectory of an economy. As a result, we are going to use it in our measure of the region’s performance. Using the most recent IMF data, we can compare the GDP growth rate for 2023 between countries, to determine which ones had the biggest growth in 2023, determining those which have performed the best.
So without further ado, let’s get deeper into this content
10) St. Lucia 3.2%
Coming in at number 10, we have the island of St. Lucia which has seen a modest growth of 3.2% for 2023. This is solid growth for the country considering that this is the lowest rate on our list, which goes to show that the Caribbean has had a pretty remarkable year. Prime Minister Philip J. Pierre has attributed this success to strategic business development policies that have unleashed the entrepreneurial spirit of our nation. The government disbursed millions in grants and soft loans to hundreds of Saint Lucians who took advantage of the MSME Loan-Grant Facility and the Youth Economy Agency, all in efforts to spur domestic growth.
It is no wonder, therefore, that Global financial monitoring agencies like the World Bank, ECLAC, and the International Monetary Fund point to continued economic gains for Saint Lucia in 2024, all projecting positive GDP growth with the IMF predicting 2.3% growth for the year.
9) Grenada 3.9%
Clocking into the number 9 slot, we have the spice isle that is Grenada, which was just shy of the 4% mark at 3.9% GDP growth for 2023. After an IMF visit in July of 2023, its report highlighted Grenada’s achievements in navigating the recent crises to foster robust economic growth. The report commended the country’s prudent fiscal policies and undertaking comprehensive structural reforms to achieve a sound economic performance.
Grenada continues to see tourism growth as well, as the country’s tourist arrivals finally returned to 2019 levels and an increase in travel capacity, namely with Virgin Atlantic adding a third weekly flight to the country. The country will also see continued development in infrastructure projects, with a partnership with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Saudi Fund for Development for a loan of $100 million for a climate-smart infrastructure project.
8) Belize 4%
Next on our list, we have our Caribbean neighbor in Central America, the beautiful country of Belize. Belize just edges out Grenada in terms of GDP growth for 2023 at 4%, which is remarkable for a country that had struggled to see economic growth pre-COVID of higher than 2%. In 2024, the country is expected to continue on this trajectory but fall slightly to 3%, a fact that has spurred buzz in the country.
In August of last year, Belize held its Investment Summit, with a focus on attracting and promoting investment for economic development in Belize, identifying opportunities, and showcasing Belize’s readiness to support global investment. Particular focus was placed on real estate and tourism development, as the country looks to attract US tourists and cruise ships to the country.
7) The Bahamas 4.3%
We continue down the list with the following countries being clustered closely together. Up in the North of the Caribbean, we mention The Bahamas at number 7 slot, with a GDP growth rate of 4.3% for 2023. The country had an IMF visit in November 2023, where there was a growth forecast of 2.3%. The country crushed this prediction, coming in at almost double the growth for 2023.
This commendable performance emphasizes that the government’s fiscal strategy has surpassed many expectations, performing well on fiscal goals such as cutting the debt-to-GDP ratio, which exceeded 100% 2 years ago and has now been reduced to 84%. With reducing inflation and continued growth expected in 2024 of 3%, the future of the Bahamian economy looks bright.
6) Barbados 4.5%
Closely behind, at a growth rate of 4.5%, we have Barbados which has also seen solid growth and economic prospects in 2023. In the country’s central bank review in October of 2023, the bank acknowledged it reached 10 consecutive quarters of economic growth. In a statement from the governor of the central bank Dr. Kevin Greenidge, “Broad-based growth boosted tax collections, improved labor market conditions, reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio, narrowed the trade deficit, increased foreign reserve levels, and improved credit quality as well as bank profitability.”
Much of the country’s success has been attributed to the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation or BERT program. Started in 2018, the long-term program is aimed at establishing macroeconomic stability and the development of sustainable and inclusive growth. This combined with an Extended Fund Facility with the IMF, which essentially provides the country with loans in exchange for certain reforms, has led to a strong reemergence for the country in a post-Covid environment.
5) Dominica 4.6%
Next up on our list, we come to the nature island, home to untouched wonder, Dominica. Dominica just edges out Barbados by 0.1% with a GDP growth rate of 4.6% and is expected to hit the same 4.6% in 2024. While this is within the realm of error, we must give the country its props for mirroring the success that we have seen throughout the region.
Reconstruction efforts will continue after the devastation caused by Hurricane Maria in 2017. Though many may have forgotten, losses from Hurricane Maria were estimated at $1.37 billion, or a mammoth 226 percent of GDP. While these efforts were delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the government has recently restarted infrastructural projects in housing and tourism, along with the modernization and expansion of the agricultural sector to enhance food security.
4) St. Kitts and Nevis 4.9%
With the trend of small countries putting up big numbers, we come to another small country that has seen remarkable success in 2023, St. Kitts and Nevis. Again, slightly ahead of the previous country, St. Kitts and Nevis last year saw a GDP growth rate of 4.9%. In the government’s comprehensive budget address in December, Prime Minister Terrance Drew acknowledged the path the country has paved so far and set out goals for future growth.
The Prime Minister highlighted the Citizenship by Investment (CBI) Programme’s remarkable contribution, exceeding budget expectations by 54.9 percent. Further plans were highlighted such as the imminent launch of a ground-breaking Contributory Pension Plan in January of 2024, a rise in the minimum wage from EC$9 per hour to EC$10.75 per hour, and a 50% bonus for civil servants. All in all the future of St. Kitts looks well, as the IMF projects another year of solid growth at 3.8% in 2024.
3) Antigua and Barbuda 5.6%
We now break into the top three best-performing economies of 2023, all of which saw growth of higher than 5%. At the number 3 slot, with a GDP growth rate last year of 5.6%, we have Antigua and Barbuda. This number, however, while great is a slight disappointment from the 8.1% growth rate that was expected from the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank back in September of 2023. Nonetheless, 5.6% growth is an excellent accomplishment and puts Antigua and Barbuda in the top 15% of the best-performing economies in 2023.
Antigua and Barbuda is expected to continue this growth into 2024, with a GDP growth rate predicted at 5.4%. With a budget for 2024 not much greater than the 2023 budget, Antigua and Barbuda is expected to have a much bigger fiscal space to engage in important development projects such as improved water access and better roads.
2) St. Vincent and the Grenadines 6.2%
Next up at the number two stop, we have none other than St. Vincent and the Grenadines, which last year hit a GDP growth rate of 6.2%, more than double the world average of just 3%. St. Vincent and the Grenadines has emerged as a resilient and promising economic performance, which reflects a strategic blend of policies fostering stability and growth. SVG has experienced notable progress in key sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and services, fostering also a well-rounded economy.
The tourism industry, bolstered by the allure of pristine beaches and the unique charm of the Grenadines archipelago, has seen a commendable resurgence. Furthermore, the government’s commitment to sustainable development is evident in initiatives promoting renewable energy and environmental conservation. All of this is expected to lead to similarly good growth in 2024, with a predicted GDP growth rate of 5%.
1) Guyana 38.4%
And finally, in the number 1 spot with the fastest growing economy in 2023, the fast-rising giant in the Southern Caribbean, Guyana. Guyana in 2023 had an astonishing 38.4% GDP growth rate. Coupled with an even more spectacular growth rate of 62.3% in 2022, the Country has essentially doubled the size of its economy in just 2 years, which is unprecedented and puts it as the second fastest-growing economy in the world. It is no surprise therefore then, that the country is expected to continue this growth in 2024, with a predicted GDP growth rate of 26.6.
The source of this tremendous growth is very different compared to the rest of the Caribbean and stems from the ever-increasing oil and gas industry being developed in the country. This growth is largely driven by rising oil exports from Stabroek Block, an offshore oil field being developed by an Exxon Mobil-led consortium. Guyana currently produces approximately 400,000 barrels of oil a day, but production is expected to increase to 1.3 million barrels a day by 2027 so there is much more growth expected to come in the coming years.
All this growth has not come easy, however, as the country last year found itself on one side of rising tension with its neighbor Venezuela, who has exerted territorial claims on two-thirds of Guyana. Despite the breakneck pace of growth, President of Guyana Ifraan Ali said Guyana is also seeking to diversify its economy, through simultaneous infrastructure and tourism development. Guyana’s Finance Minister Ashni Singh explains that Guyana plans to conduct capital expenditures of roughly $1.5 billion annually in the coming years to ensure that all aspects of the economy expand. With all that be.
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The economic performance of the Caribbean in 2023 paints a compelling portrait of resilience, adaptability, and growth across the region. Even the slowest grower in our list at 3.2% is still faster than the global average for 2023 of 3%, showcasing that there is great potential in the region.
While it is important to recognize that GDP and GDP growth are not the be-all and end-all of a good economy or a good society, the solid overall growth experienced by the Caribbean will make it much easier for the region to realize its goals of sustainable development and prosperity for its citizens. Here is to an even better 2024.
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Do you agree with our insights, or do you have a different perspective?
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