In today’s video, we delve into the latest developments in the tense territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela over the Esequibo region. After Venezuela’s controversial referendum and the subsequent military build-up, the situation seemed poised for conflict. However, a significant turn of events occurred with a peace agreement facilitated by regional leaders. Despite this, the recent deployment of the UK’s HMS Trent to Guyana and Venezuela’s military exercises have reignited tensions, casting doubt on the stability of the peace agreement. We’ll explore the implications of these developments and what they could mean for the future of this long-standing dispute.
Much has changed in the subsequent weeks since our last update which is linked below, so today we are going to give an update on the events that have since happened. So why not check our other videos on the Guyana Venezuela border dispute below so you can get fully up-to-date with the background before we dive back into whether the conflict is on the horizon for the Caribbean?
Before we get deep into this updated video, let us quickly recap what is currently happening between Guyana and Venezuela and what this is all about. The recent developments in the longstanding territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela surround the mostly dense rainforest territory of Esequibo. Currently a part of Guyana, Venezuela has long had historical claims to the region and as of late pressed for its claim on what is two-thirds of Guyana’s sovereign territory.
On the 3rd of December, 2023, Venezuela held a controversial referendum on incorporating the disputed Esequibo region into its territory, a move strongly opposed by Guyana. The referendum results claimed over 95% of Venezuelans showed support for the moves, raising much skepticism. However, Venezuela had pressed this referendum as justification for its claim and began amassing troops on its Guyana border.
Tensions had further escalated as Venezuelan troops deployed near the border, causing worry not only for Guyana but also prompting increased military presence from neighboring Brazil. The international community, including the United States, has been called upon each party to address the situation peacefully, emphasizing the urgent need for diplomatic solutions to avoid military conflict.
A Peace Agreement is Reached
Shortly after our last update which predicted the possibility of a conflict between the two countries, discussions began between the President of Venezuela Nicholas Maduro, and the President of Guyana Irfaan Ali in St Lucia. The presidents engaged in talks aimed at resolving tensions over disputed territory which was brokered by St Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Dr Ralph Gonsalves.
Gonsalves, who heads the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), along with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Prime Minister of Barbados Mia Amor Mottley, facilitated the discussions and soon after both parties came to a peace agreement.
Guyana and Venezuela agreed to a three-page joint declaration, which stated that they would “not threaten or use force against one another in any circumstances” and would “continue dialogue”. President Maduro echoed this sentiment stating, that it was an “excellent day of dialogue”, however, Guyana’s stance was less warming, with President Ali emphasizing his commitment to regional peace while asserting Guyana’s right to exploit its sovereign space.
In the treaty, the leaders further agreed to establish a joint commission of foreign ministers to address matters related to the contested area and planned further discussions in Brazil. But Guyana getting a guarantee of peace has not been seen as a complete win for the country by all. Some critics like University of Guyana professor Thomas. B. Singh and Rawle Lucas say Venezuela conceded nothing from the summit but forced Guyana to open the door to “talks outside of the World Court.”
As you may recall, Guyana is committed to resolving this issue in the International Court of Justice, where its case is strong and likely to win. However, Venezuela does not recognize the court’s jurisdiction and has long rejected it, fearing it will lose the case and prefers direct bilateral. Singh argues that Guyana has opened up these doors, which subverts all the legal support in favor of Guyana, most notably the 1899 Arbitral Award and the Geneva Agreement in 1966.
Testing the Treaty
So is that it? Is everything mostly settled militarily and a path forward? Well, not quite. Less than 2 weeks after the peace agreement was signed, Guyana announced that in an agreement with the United Kingdom, in which the HMS Trent warship would be deployed to Guyana in a show of diplomatic and military support for the former British colony. It came just days after the UK’s Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron, reiterated that the UK would “continue to work with partners in the region to ensure the territorial integrity of Guyana is upheld and prevent escalation”.
The HMS Trent which was initially deployed to the Caribbean for anti-drug smuggling operations, will participate in joint exercises with the Guyanese military after Christmas and the United Kingdom has stated that “the warship deployment is part of the UK’s efforts to demonstrate international diplomatic support for Guyana amid the territorial dispute.” This now means that two support powers, the United States and the United Kingdoms, have provided military support to Guyana, the US with airspace flyovers and monitoring, and the UK with naval support. This further strengthens Guyana’s position if the dispute turns into conflict.
This deployment has been seen as a major move by Guyana and as can be expected Venezuela was not happy with this announcement. In response to the UK’s decision, Venezuela has ordered its armed forces to hold military exercises. Military leaders said 5,600 soldiers would take part in “defensive” exercises on Venezuela’s eastern Caribbean and Atlantic coasts.
In a television address, President Maduro stated the exercises were being launched “in response to the provocation and threat of the United Kingdom against peace and the sovereignty of our country”, reiterating that it “broke the spirit of the recent agreement”.
What Will the Next Phase Be?
That brings us up-to-date with the current events of the dispute but still leaves many things uncertain. So what will the future hold between the two, and what will the next phase be? Well, the question of whether conflict will break out between the two countries remains as ambiguous as before. Though a peace agreement was signed between Guyana and Venezuela, the increase in military exercises and the involvement of foreign naval powers brought into question whether the peace agreement was successful.
Another thing to consider further is how will this all be resolved. This is where the details from the peace agreement can give some insight. As we indicated earlier critics have raised concerns that Guyana has opened up avenues for the dispute to be resolved outside the ICJ, meaning Guyana would lose the legal basis for the claims. This would also render the value of any judicial decision by the ICJ impotent. In the peace agreement talks, Venezuela’s rejection of the ICJ, which has been the main path forward for Guyana, was simply “noted” and Venezuela made no agreements to engage with the court.
Furthermore, critics like Professor Singh decried the fact that Guyana had allowed the word dispute in the final text, stating that it is not a dispute but rather a border controversy as Guyana is the legal, beneficial owner and occupier of the Essequibo region which Venezuela covets. However, this is a smaller point, as the term dispute has been used in the same ICJ process.
In conclusion, Although there is much that can be said about the details and resulting outcome of the agreement, it is an accomplishment for the smaller territory of Guyana to secure a no-force agreement with Venezuela. Guyana is much smaller militarily, and even with the UK and US support, would need significant intervention if it were to face a direct conflict with Venezuela. But with an increase in military drills and presence on both sides, the peace agreement has already gotten off to a rocky start.
However, what has become more likely is the possibility that an agreement is made between the countries outside the ICJ to appease Venezuela. Talks have been scheduled between the two parties to take place later this year in Brazil, with much buzz as to what the outcome of such talks would be.
As this dispute continues to evolve, in 2024 it enters a new phase with higher stakes and the likelihood of both parties coming to a mutually agreeable outcome gets smaller and smaller. But no matter what happens, rest assured that we at Jirie Caribbean will bring you the latest information and analysis.
So let us know what you think in the comments section below. Are you confident in the peace agreement between Venezuela and Guyana? Do you think there is still room for a mutual agreement? We would love to hear from you.
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