In a world where borders define nations and resources fuel ambitions, a long-standing dispute simmers at the heart of South America. We’re talking about the escalating tensions between Guyana and Venezuela – a conflict that not only grips the Caribbean but has caught the attention of the international community. At the center of this brewing storm is the Essequibo region, a land of unspoiled beauty, rich in biodiversity and resources, and a homeland to thousands. This is not just a territorial dispute; it’s a struggle for identity, survival, and the future.

But how did we get here? From colonial handovers to disputed lines, from the quest for gold to the discovery of oil, this conflict is rooted in a complex history that has shaped the fate of two nations. Today, as Guyana rises as an emerging economic powerhouse, thanks to its oil reserves, and Venezuela stands firm in its claims, the tension reaches a critical point. The world watches as a referendum in Venezuela threatens to redraw the map, challenging the very existence of a nation.”

But what lies ahead in this high-stakes geopolitical drama? 

Is this a prelude to a larger conflict, or can diplomacy pave the way for peace?

Join us at Jirie Caribbean as we delve deep into the heart of the Guyana-Venezuela crisis. We’ll uncover the past, analyze the present, and explore the future of this critical issue. Your voice matters in this conversation. Share your thoughts, engage with us, and become a part of a community that seeks understanding and solutions.”

Yes, The tensions between Guyana and Venezuela are rising, and concerns of conflict between the two countries are beginning to take hold. This stems from a territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela over the Essequibo region which is currently part of Guyana. These tensions reached their highest point when Guyana stated it is facing an existential threat in the form of a referendum in neighboring Venezuela, and that this referendum may be a prelude to Venezuela annexing part of its territory.

But what is the full story here? And why are tensions now getting too high? In today’s video, we are going to take a look at the territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela. Explain its origins and current state of affairs, and discuss the future between these two countries. 

Guyana vs Venezuela Essequibo Land And Oil Conflict

What is Eequibo?

The territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela concerns an area known as Esequibo, which is approximately 62,000 square miles and is located west of the river of the same name. The Esequibo River runs the full length of Guyana from north to south which essentially splits Guyana in two and is more than two-thirds of Guyana’s land area. Despite Venezuela’s claim, the area is currently wholly integrated into Guyana and is home to 125,000 Guyanese, out of the total population of 800,000.

The vast majority of Esequibo, similar to Guyana as a whole, is a dense rainforest like the Amazon. It is home to a rich biodiversity beautiful natural features, and most importantly, natural resources. The most notable of these and the biggest driver of the dispute is oil, which is located just offshore. Since the initial discovery of underwater oil disposits in 2015, Guyana has seen rapid economic growth fueled by increasing oil extraction. It is quickly transforming into an economic powerhouse in the Caribbean. Guyana currently produces nearly 400,000 barrels of oil a day, but production is expected to increase to 1.3 million barrels a day by 2027. 

But Why?

As with most of the territorial disputes found in this part of the world, another example being between Belize and Guatemala, it originates from the colonial era. Back in 1814, the Dutch, who controlled what is modern-day Guayana, seceded the territory to the British. However, this handover of territory to the British did not define a western boundary. Years later, the British drew what is called the Schomburgk Line, which is the current border between Guyana and Venezuela. However, Venezuela at the time disputed this line and claimed the border was actually as far east as, you guessed it, the Esequibo River, which is where the current disputed territory is. 

The following years saw rising tensions between Venezuela, and what was then British Guyana, as the discovery of gold and other natural resources at the time placed a strain on their relationship. Eventually, Venezuela lobbied the US successfully to pressure Britain into an Arbitration Agreement of the dispute. In 1899, an arbitration tribunal under the Treaty of Washington ruled largely in favor of Britain, much to the disappointment of Venezuela. However, Venezuela agreed to this result, and joint communism between Venezuela and British Guyana demarcated the boundary as agreed.

But as we fast forward to 1962, Venezuela nullifies the ruling, claiming the original arbitration was influenced by the British. Tensions again began to rise and a 1966 agreement between Venezuela and British Guyana laid out a path to a diplomatic and legal resolution. When Guyana gained independence in 1966, the territorial dispute was passed onto the country, and things continued with no clear direction or mediation. 

With oil discoveries in 2015 off the coast of Esequibo, and with the growing extraction of oil and foreign capitalist companies such as Exxon and Shell taking root in Esequibo, Guyana thought it fit to bring their dispute to the United Nations for a formal resolution. In 2018, the UN Secretary-General assigned the case to the International Court of Justice, and Guyana pled the case that the original arbitration agreement should be upheld. Venezuela was not appreciative of this escalation to the ICJ, declaring that the court had no jurisdiction in the matter and boycotting the court proceedings. However, in April of this year, the ICJ ruled that it had jurisdiction to decide on the territorial dispute and that the case would move forward. 

What is the Current Situation?

The tensions between Venezuela and Guyana are not again at a height that has not been seen in its modern relationship. Venezuela sees the move by the ICJ to take the case as concerning and has scheduled a referendum regarding the issue. But what is in this referendum? The referendum has several questions attached. The first question asks Venezuelans if they reject the 1899 Arbitration Agreement. The second asks if they reject the ICJ’s jurisdiction on the matter. The third asks if Venezeualans agree with the historical position of Venezuela of having a claim to the territory. The fourth asks if they oppose, by all means, Guyana’s claim to Esequibo. All of these questions seriously concern Guyana, but the biggest and scariest one is the fifth, which asks Venezuelans if they agree with integrating the region into the country as a State. 

This final question essentially asks the people if they support the annexation of Esequibo, by incorporating the territory wholly into Venezuela, including granting citizenship to persons with the territory. The government is urging its citizens to vote yes on all five questions which, knowing the political system in the country, is most likely to happen.  As you can imagine, this referendum has caused extreme concern in Guyana, on an order that has never been seen before. The government has described the referendum as an existential threat to the country and asked the ICJ to issue an emergency order for Venezuela to stop its planned referendum. This referendum it claims will pave the way for annexation of its territory to a much larger country with superior military. 

The referendum has also caused condemnation from the Commonwealth, CARICOM, and the OAS, all of whom support Guyana’s position. However, Venezuela has stated that the referendum will go on. Which is most likely right as no organization would be able to physically stop the country. 

So what does this mean going forward?

While this escalation of a referendum is concerning, it is important to note that this referendum would not actually change the reality of the current situation. The region would still be under Guyana’s control, and the ICJ would continue on their case and ruling. However, more important to note what this means in terms of the political landscape.  The concern here is how will Venezuela react if it receives what it sees as a mandate from its people, which will almost certainly occur. On one hand, this referendum may be the first step in a grander plan to take the territory by force, using the backing of the referendum to support its claim. On the other hand, it might be a more subtle ploy to gain further legitimacy for its case in the ICJ. This excludes a plethora of other considerations such as the sowing seeds of nationalism, measuring the public’s support for its plan, or even shoring up support ahead of national elections next year. 

In Venezeula’s defense, its Ambassador to Guyana said on the 12th of November that Venezuela would not invade Guyana even if people voted ‘yes’ to the declaration of Essequibo. “No, never,” he stated, indicating that “It is no war, ok. Diplomacy and negotiation.” However, considering that Esequibo accounts for two-thirds of the country’s land area, these states have done little to quell the building concern that Guyana has. The country continues to push for the ICJ to stop the referendum, has given stern warnings to its neighbor, and calls on the support of its allies and regional organizations. 

In conclusion, the Guyana-Venezuela territorial dispute over the Essequibo region encapsulates the enduring challenges inherent in reconciling historical agreements with present-day aspirations. While those who support Guyana look to the 1899 Arbitration Agreement as the linchpin holding Guyana’s case together, the contested position that Venezuela holds has left both nations entangled in a complex web of diplomatic tensions. Adding to this, the discovery of vast quantities of oil reserves and the growing economic significance this holds for the region, the intensification of tensions is only bound to continue. 

The path forward will continue to remain uncertain, but the hope remains that a diplomatic solution can be found, that avoids any war and bloodshed. But as Guyana is so much smaller and less powerful than Venezeula, the question remains, what can Guyana do if Venezuela ever decides to annex the region?

We would love to hear your thoughts on this matter….

What do you think will happen? 

Will Venezuela continue with its referendum? 

Is this the first step in a more aggressive posture? 

We at Jirie Caribbean would love to hear your thoughts, so why not leave a comment below? 

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